As a rookie, Montgomery was a disappointment, averaging just 10.7 fantasy points per game. Hes the favorite for running back targets, but the offense doesnt really throw to the running backs. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. McKissic is not your traditional committee back or injury-away dart throw for a big ceiling. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. Mckissic, and there was talk of rookie Brian Robinson Jr taking on the short yardage work. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. Murray scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 9 different games in 2020. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB39 | Consensus Projections RB47. Gibson was even in the game after Robinson was out. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. Worst of all, he is now playing on the Houston Texans, who have no identity on offense heading into the season. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. Wait until next year. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. Dave Kluge: Sure, youre not giving up any crazy draft capital to get J.D. 3) Micah Richards. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. He has lapses in vision and decision-making. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. That role may not disappear completely, but the addition of Gio Bernard is a bad sign for Tampa Bay's intentions with Fournette. Jeff Haseley: We know what Saquon Barkley is capable of, but we haven't seen him perform much in Jason Garrett's offense under Joe Judge's rule. James is the more physically gifted player. And Hill is only touchable due to the cheat code rushing factor for quarterbacks. Single Has no highlight reel. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. Backs who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage are going after Chubb. I think this is pretty unfair to call him the most overrated. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. Cam Akers, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB13. Barkley is a workhorse. Sigmund Bloom: One year after the signing of Gordon indicated a lack of faith in Phillip Lindsay -- that bore out with Lindsay being allowed to leave in free agency this offseason -- the Broncos moved up in the second round to take Javonte Williams, indicating a lack of faith in Gordon. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Overrated Sleepers Running Backs Values Overrated Sleepers The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. I am a heretic in that regard. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. Michael Carter, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB36. Jan 26 . As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league to put up those huge numbers over that finishing stretch. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Sigmund Bloom: Barkley may not be 100% to start the season, and he might not truly be 100% until next season. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. 24 Overrated RBs. Tatum Bell isn't the only Lions running back of the 2000s to get snakebitten. By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. The first thing that pops out at us is that Jerome Bettis 3.9 YPC is a good deal lower than the offensive lines mark of 4.29 (ADY). This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. The Top Ten. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. That enthusiasm should be tempered because Canada was the offensive coordinator fired by LSU before LSU hired Joe Brady, who oversaw Joe Burrow's historic season. . We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB12. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. His career YPC was 3.9. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Derrick Henry, Tennessee | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB4. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB22. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. LaDainian Tomlinson 6. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. Terrell Davis, Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and recently, Dalvin Cook all took over a season of play to return to form if they did at all. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. Thats the first thing we notice. Marshall Faulk 7. Jonathan Morris: I can't endorse a high pick on Javonte Williams when he will yield a lot of work to Melvin Gordon III. Curtis Martin 11. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. NFL's 5 Most Overrated Running Backs No Name August 6, 2011 Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. It appears as if theres a change of guard happening in San Fransisco. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Cohen is strictly limited to passing-down work, and the numbers suggest that he isn't outstanding in that role either. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. I was reading an article the other day about the greatest power backs of all time and Jerome Bettis was third on the list (right behind Jim Brown and Larry Csonka and right ahead of Earl Campbell). But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Never a good idea. Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. Barry Sanders 3. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. But drafting him as a high-upside No. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. There are backs going after Chubb who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage. Fred Taylor The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. When I was comparing Bettis stats to the the 3 RBs I mentioned above, I saw that Bettis was highly overrated. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. In addition, teammate Gus Edwards just signed a two-year, $10M contract extension in June, so he isnt going anywhere any time soon. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. The Giants offensive line, playcalling, and quarterback play give us no faith that they can help create fantasy overachievers. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. His career marks are high because he played long (13 yrs) and was consistent. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. The following represent the most overrated NFL player on each team. Yep. Kansas City had 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. This is exactly what the Steelers tried to do by selecting Najee Harris in the first round in the NFL Draft. Barry Sanders is easily the best ever. Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. most overrated running backs of all time. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? And free-agent acquisitions Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead didnt even play. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. Edgerrin James 17. Andrew Davenport: Fantasy managers are drafting Carter as though he is the unquestioned starter. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Earl Campbell 9. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play. Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Jeff Haseley: It's easy to succumb to the notion that Saquon Barkley is one of the best running backs in the league. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but NFL teams sure seem to love him. Ricky Watters 20. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. Johnson is the incumbent with the largest contract, and yet he's being downshifted in favor of Mark Ingram II -- who did his best work in Baltimore, where Texans head coach David Culley comes from -- and Phillip Lindsay. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. They might be lucky to win three games, which means limited touchdown potential for Johnson and a shortage of run-friendly game scripts. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. Most overrated players in Madden 21 J.J. Watt, defensive end, Houston Texans. While he can certainly put up some strong fantasy weeks, the savvier move would be to wait for the younger backs later in the draft. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. His current draft price is almost his upside. James Brimacombe: Once Kenyan Drake was out of the picture, we shot Edmonds up the draft board naturally. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict.
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